Economic series of the Bulletin of L.N. Gumilyov ENU

Barriers and Prospects of Employment for People with Disabilities in Kazakhstan: An Empirical Study

2026-02-19T10:21:01+00:00

Inclusive employment of persons with disabilities is an important area of social policy in the context of sustainable development. The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the state and prospects of inclusive employment in the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2021–2024.

Purpose – to identify structural, regional, and institutional factors influencing the involvement of persons with disabilities in the labor market, as well as to analyze the dynamics of inclusive employment.

Methods – a mixed methodological approach was applied, including statistical analysis of demographic and social characteristics (gender, type of impairment, place of residence, and disability groups) and in-depth semi-structured interviews with 35 representatives of various disability categories. Government support measures were also examined, and their effectiveness was assessed using the example of Astana.

Results – significant regional differences in employment levels were identified, key barriers to labor market inclusion were determined, and uneven effectiveness of state programs was revealed. Positive examples were noted, including initiatives by public organizations and the expansion of online training opportunities. Recommendations were formulated to improve working conditions, provide tax incentives, increase digital literacy, and strengthen informational support.

Conclusions – the study confirms the importance of inclusive employment as an element of sustainable development; the findings contribute to improving employment strategies and enhancing the participation of persons with disabilities in the social and economic life of the country.

Urbanization processes in Astana: Development trends and socio-economic impact

2026-02-19T10:27:40+00:00

The purpose of the article is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the intensive period and consequences of urbanization in Astana, which has been experiencing an intensive period of urbanization in recent decades, characterized by the construction of the city's population, the construction of new small-scale production and the development of infrastructure, to identify the main trends and problems, as well as to make recommendations for effective management of urban development.

Methods - quantitative methods, as well as qualitative methods based on the analysis of scientific literature and research were used.

Results - an analysis of migration processes in Astana, the city's population, problems and development trends and socio-economic impact. The population growth rate, territorial development of the city and the environmental consequences of urbanization were assessed.

Conclusions — the authors emphasize that strategic planning, efficient resource allocation, and the active engagement of the local community are of decisive importance for ensuring sustainable urban development. Maintaining socio-economic balance and systematically implementing innovative solutions enhances the positive effects of urbanization processes and helps minimize potential risks.

Urbanization is a global trend that requires solving various problems, including the level of development of the country's economy, traditions and culture, the perception of its residents, and other features. Currently, the relevance of urban development is increasing. Large cities are the foundation of the economies and governance of countries around the world. The rapid growth of cities leads to the productivity of urban environments, which creates new opportunities and complex outcomes.

Econometric model for assessing the effectiveness of system-forming directions for achieving carbon neutrality

2026-02-17T04:44:12+00:00

The purpose of the study is to develop and test a comprehensive econometric model for quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of system-forming directions of state policy for achieving carbon neutrality in the Republic of Kazakhstan, taking into account regional specifics and sectoral structure of the economy. The research methodology is based on the application of panel data analysis methods, including fixed and random effects models, dynamic panel models, Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition for factor contribution assessment, and spatial econometric methods to account for regional spillover effects. The empirical base includes panel data for 17 regions of Kazakhstan for the period 2010-2024. For the first time for Kazakhstan conditions, a multi-level econometric model has been developed that integrates macroeconomic, sectoral, and regional decarbonization factors. An original composite Regional Carbon Neutrality Readiness Index is proposed, taking into account 28 indicators. The results showed that a 1% increase in energy efficiency reduces the carbon intensity of GDP by 0.47%, a 1% development of renewable energy reduces emissions by 0.18%, and an increase in the carbon price by 10 USD/ton CO₂ leads to a 2.3% reduction in emissions. Conclusion - significant regional differences in emission elasticity by decarbonization factors were identified. Under the optimal scenario, carbon neutrality can be achieved by 2058, subject to annual investments of 2.7% of GDP, which aligns with the Roadmap estimates. Practical value: the model can serve as a basis for adjusting the Strategy for Achieving Carbon Neutrality of the Republic of Kazakhstan by 2060, as well as for developing regional strategies for low-carbon development.

Energy Transformation in Kazakhstan: Assessment of the Current State and Cluster Analysis of Renewable Energy Development

2026-02-20T11:15:25+00:00

. In the context of global energy transformation and escalating climate challenges, the transition to a low-carbon economy has become a strategic priority for Kazakhstan. The purpose of this article is to analyze the current state, trends, and regional characteristics of renewable energy sources (RES) development in Kazakhstan, identify spatial disparities, and determine optimal development pathways based on the climatic and resource potential of regions. Methods – using official statistics, analytical reports, and climatic indicators, a comprehensive comparative and cluster analysis was conducted to evaluate the dynamics of RES growth, identify regional clusters, and justify strategic directions for enhancing efficiency within the framework of the national carbon-neutrality strategy by 2060. The results demonstrate steady growth in installed capacity and power generation from RES, alongside significant regional imbalances. The cluster analysis identified three distinct groups of regions: southeastern areas suitable for solar and small hydropower development; southern regions favorable for industrial-scale solar generation; and northern and western territories optimal for wind and hybrid wind-solar systems. The findings provide a scientific basis for improving Kazakhstan’s energy transition policy and advancing the country’s sustainable development goals.

Comparative analysis of state support models for small and medium-sized enterprises: transformation of Kazakhstan's experience in the context of global practice

2026-02-20T07:44:31+00:00

Purpose: This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of government support systems for small and medium-sized businesses in Kazakhstan in the period 2015-2025 and the search for strategies for the transition from extensive quantitative growth to high-quality technological acceleration.

Methods: The study employs methods of systematic and descriptive analysis of statistical data from 17 regions and three megacities of Kazakhstan for the period 2015-2025. The main method used was international comparative analysis (benchmarking) with best practices from OECD countries.

Results: analysis of the dynamics for 2015–2025 shows that despite the increase in the share of SMEs in the gross domestic product to 38,2%, structural stagnation persists: 41,8% of regions remain primarily focused on trade. Regional imbalances are also identified, resulting from the location of 65% of innovative enterprises in megacities, indicating the low effectiveness of the territorial distribution of subsidies.

The scientific novelty: It lies in the development of a "predictive acceleration" model, which proposes replacing direct subsidies with risk-sharing instruments linked to key labor productivity indicators.

Practical significance: The study provides a justification for the implementation of transitional tax regimes and a digital assessment system based on big data, aimed at increasing the transparency and effectiveness of development institutions.

Features of the use of e-commerce in the sale of farmers' products in Kazakhstan

2026-02-16T16:44:52+00:00

Objective – to analyze the features of the use of e–commerce in the sale of agricultural products in Kazakhstan and identify factors affecting the level of implementation of electronic sales channels in the agricultural sector. Methods – dialectical and abstract-logical methods, content analysis of scientific literature, analysis of official statistical data for 2020-2024, survey of farms, as well as methods of structural and comparative analysis. Results – based on a survey of 120 farms, an analysis of the prevalence of e-commerce and the structure of the digital channels used for the sale of products was carried out. The dominance of informal digital sales channels, primarily messengers, has been established, with limited use of marketplaces and their own websites. The levels of digital maturity of farms have been identified and the dependence of the introduction of e-commerce on the territorial factor and the availability of digital infrastructure has been confirmed. The main directions of e-commerce development in the agricultural sector are substantiated. Conclusions – the authors state that e-commerce in the farming sector of Kazakhstan is at an early stage of development and is characterized by a fragmented introduction of digital channels. The expansion of the use of e-commerce requires institutional support, the development of digital infrastructure, the improvement of digital competencies of farmers, and the integration of electronic channels with agricultural logistics.

Resource Conservation and Secondary Use of Oil Waste as Elements of the Circular Economy in the Oil Refining Industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan

2026-02-25T04:39:20+00:00

The purpose of this study is to substantiate the importance of resource conservation and secondary use of oil-containing waste in the oil industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the context of implementing circular economy principles. The methodological framework of the research is based on system, structural-dynamic, and comparative analysis methods, as well as economic and mathematical methods for calculating specific and relative indicators of resource efficiency, and the case study method for analyzing practical experience in processing oil-containing waste. The empirical basis of the study includes official statistical and ведомственные data from authorized government bodies, as well as corporate reports of oil and gas companies.

The research findings confirm that the integration of circular economy principles into the oil waste management system contributes to reducing landfill disposal volumes, increasing resource efficiency, and enhancing the environmental sustainability of the oil industry. The study concludes that a transition from a linear oil waste management model to a circular system focused on incorporating oil-containing waste into secondary economic circulation and strengthening the sustainable development of the oil and gas complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan is both feasible and justified.

World experience in the development of FEZ and the possibility of its use in Kazakhstan

2026-02-22T06:26:51+00:00

In the last decades of the twentieth century, the emergence of zones with special economic status, the so-called "free (or special) economic zones (SEZs)", has become one of the characteristic features of ensuring macroeconomic stabilization on a global scale. Special economic zones have long been on the political agenda of the leaders of countries and regions, but over the past two decades they have attracted more and more attention. Most low- and middle-income countries have introduced a policy of special economic zones, which has led to a 20-fold increase in their numbers since the late 1980s. Today there are about 7,000 of them, this approach is one of the priority measures of modern economic development.

The purpose of this scientific article is an in-depth analysis of the theoretical and practical aspects of the formation and functioning of special economic zones and to demonstrate their role in the sustainable economic growth of individual countries in the 21st century. The main objectives of this work are to provide a correct methodological definition of special economic zones, consider their main types, and conduct a comparative analysis of the state of SEZs in developed and developing countries.

Exploring Optimal Models of International Branch Campuses: Identifying the Best Strategy for Kazakhstan

2025-10-23T15:42:48+00:00

Objective - to analyze existing models of international branch campuses (IBCs) and identify the most optimal formats for their implementation and sustainable functioning within the higher education system of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Methods - comparative analysis, institutional approach, content analysis of regulatory and strategic documents, and analysis of secondary statistical data from international organizations (C-BERT, OBHE, UNESCO). Results - the study is based on a comparative analysis of international experience in the operation of IBCs in the Middle East, Asia, and Europe. Key IBC models were identified, including wholly owned campuses, joint universities, franchise models, leased campuses, and hybrid formats. Factors determining their sustainability were established, such as ownership structure, autonomy level, governance mechanisms, and state support. An assessment of IBC development dynamics in Kazakhstan was conducted, and institutional barriers and prospects for expanding the branch campus network in the regions were identified. Conclusions - the authors conclude that joint and hybrid IBC models involving state participation and national universities are the most applicable for Kazakhstan. The study emphasizes the need to improve the regulatory framework, develop state support mechanisms, and integrate IBCs into the national higher education system as a tool for internationalization and human capital development.

The impact of digitalization on human resource management in project-oriented companies

2026-02-08T17:56:22+00:00

The purpose of the article is to identify the impact of digital technologies on human resource management in project-oriented companies and to develop effective strategic solutions. Methods – dialectical and abstract-logical methods, content analysis of scientific literature, comparative and structural analysis, as well as a survey of representatives of construction and IT companies in Almaty and Astana. Results – based on a survey of 60 respondents, an analysis of the level of digitalization of HR processes and the specifics of using digital tools in personnel management was carried out. It has been established that digitalization is primarily partial and manifests primarily in the selection and adaptation of personnel, as well as in communication and the coordination of project teams. The differences between construction and IT companies are revealed due to the level of digital maturity and the degree of technology integration into the project management system. The main barriers to digitalization have been identified, including a lack of digital competencies, resistance to change, and limited resources. Strategic solutions to increase the efficiency of digitalization of human resource management are substantiated. Conclusions – the digitalization of HR activities in project-oriented companies is at the stage of formation and is characterized by fragmented implementation of digital solutions. Improving the effectiveness of human resource management requires a systematic approach to digital transformation, the development of digital competencies, the integration of HR functions with project management, and the expansion of the use of analytical tools.

Development of digitalization in the banking activity of Kazakhstan

2026-02-18T08:19:52+00:00

The purpose of the work is a theoretical consideration of the development of the banking industry in the digital economy through increasing the share of online services and a comparative analysis of changes in the field of digitalization. The banking sector is one of the most relevant sectors of the economy for the introduction of innovative technologies. The development of digital technologies in the banking sector will expand and simplify the range of use of banking services.

Research methods are the calculation of the relationship between the number of non-cash transactions and the average ROA indicators of the three largest banks in Kazakhstan using the method of accumulation, analysis, correlation of statistical data on the impact of digital technologies on banking activities based on statistical information on the official website of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Results - the authors studied the level of non-cash and cash withdrawals on the dynamics of the use of payment cards for the period from 2019 to 2025, payments made via POS-terminal, internet and mobile phone and made using a QR-indicator, as well as the dynamics of indicators by the number of users of online services of banks.

The scientific novelty of the study consists in the development of research work on the situation in Kazakhstan's banking activities through digitalization trends.

The practical significance of the work is the implementation and justification of the development of innovations in the banking sector of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Increasing the competitiveness of the banking industry during the development of the digital economy.

Conclusions - the banking system is considered an industry that quickly implements the latest information technologies. The growth in the number of users of the bank's online services leads to the need to provide online services in the bank's activities. Therefore, in order to increase the level of provision of online services, trends in the digitalization of banks have been proposed.

The prospects for the development of voluntary health insurance in Kazakhstan within the framework of the mandatory social health insurance system

2026-02-08T17:50:30+00:00

Objective – to analyze the current state of the voluntary health insurance market in the Republic of Kazakhstan and to identify prospects for its development within the framework of the mandatory social health insurance (MSHI) system. Methods – the study employs dialectical and abstract-logical methods, comparative analysis, as well as qualitative and quantitative data analysis techniques. The empirical base includes the analysis of legal and regulatory acts, academic publications, international experience, and official statistical data in the fields of healthcare and insurance. Results – the key findings of the study include the development and substantiation of potential strategic directions for the advancement of voluntary health insurance in the Republic of Kazakhstan, aimed at improving access to and quality of healthcare services and reducing the level of out-of-pocket payments by the population. The findings provide an analytical foundation for the further development of the voluntary health insurance market under the mandatory social health insurance system and may be considered an additional financial mechanism to enhance the sustainability of the healthcare system.
Conclusions – the necessity of developing voluntary health insurance as a supplementary financial mechanism within the MSHI system is substantiated; the implementation of the proposed measures will contribute to improved accessibility and quality of healthcare services and reduce the burden on public financing sources.

Evaluation of the mechanism of agricultural lending in Kazakhstan

2026-02-22T06:37:34+00:00

Objective is to evaluate the mechanism for lending to the agro-industrial complex in the Republic of Kazakhstan based on the analysis. The relevance of the chosen topic is determined by the priority direction of the agro-industrial complex for the economic development of the country, which is determined by the need to ensure food security of the country, increase the efficiency of agricultural production and sustainable development of the regions. Achieving these goals is impossible without organizing an effective lending mechanism for agricultural entities. Methods – quantitative and qualitative assessment methods, a comparative analysis method and an analysis of regulatory documents were used as methods. Results: the mechanism for lending to the agro-industrial complex at the present stage is considered.considers the lending mechanism for the agro-industrial complex at the present stage. Particular attention is paid to the activities of JSC Agrarian Credit Corporation. The credit products of the Corporation and the mechanism of its interaction with other financial institutions regarding lending to agricultural entities are considered. Conclusions: despite the development of agricultural lending in Kazakhstan, the current system does not provide a significant increase in the efficiency of the agro-industrial complex. To overcome existing challenges, it is necessary to modernize credit instruments, expand and strengthen the network of credit partnerships with the involvement of new sources of financing. Particular attention should be paid to the development of financial products that take into account the specifics of agricultural production, as well as the introduction of self-financing models that can reduce credit risks. The introduction of digital solutions will improve the availability and quality of services for rural entrepreneurs.

The Impact of ESG Factors on the Financial Stability of Companies

2026-02-25T02:43:27+00:00

The objective – of this study is to determine the impact of considering non-financial ESG factors (environmental, social, and governance) on assessing the financial stability of companies.

Methods. The study utilizes quantitative analysis, including the Z-score and a modified Altman model for assessing financial stability. It is hypothesized that companies with high ESG ratings are less susceptible to bankruptcy risk, while ignoring environmental and social factors increases profit volatility and leads to financial losses. Furthermore, the study tests the hypothesis that ESG metrics can serve as indicators of potential financial crises, making them a valuable tool for corporate risk management.

Results. The scientific novelty of this study lies in its comprehensive analysis of the impact of ESG factors on the financial stability of companies using traditional financial methods. Unlike most studies, which examine ESG primarily from the perspective of corporate social responsibility or investment attractiveness, this study focuses on assessing the likelihood of bankruptcy using non-financial indicators. Using the Z-score allows us to identify patterns between ESG policies and financial instability risks.

Conclusions. Considering ESG factors is now an integral part of sustainable business. In addition to traditional financial risks, companies face threats related to environmental, social, and corporate governance aspects, which can lead to a decrease in their investment appeal and, ultimately, bankruptcy.

Inflation uncertainty and behavioral consumption dynamics in Kazakhstan

2026-02-25T04:07:28+00:00

Objective – to examine the impact of inflation uncertainty and cognitive biases on household consumption in Kazakhstan over the period 2011–2024. Methods – econometric modelling based on data from the Household Budget Survey and macroeconomic indicators of the National Bank of Kazakhstan; estimation of inflation uncertainty using a GARCH(1,1) process; measurement of anchoring bias as the deviation between expected and actual inflation; application of a pooled OLS model with year fixed effects and Newey–West robust standard errors to account for behavioural and macroeconomic factors. Results – inflation uncertainty significantly reduces household consumption (β = -0.32), confirming the presence of a precautionary saving motive; expected inflation increases consumption (β = 0.05) as households anticipate higher future prices; anchoring bias exerts a small negative effect (β = -0.03), indicating limited responsiveness to new information; household income has a strong positive effect on expenditure (β = 0.74); the model explains 96% of the variation in household consumption. Conclusions – behavioural factors play a substantial role in shaping consumption decisions under conditions of inflation uncertainty; strengthening the transparency and credibility of monetary policy communication by the National Bank of Kazakhstan can mitigate anchoring behaviour and stabilise household consumption expectations.

Integration of ESG factors and non-financial data into the managerial accounting system

2026-02-22T06:03:07+00:00

In light of growing demands for compliance with the global climate agenda and business transparency, non-financial data are becoming increasingly important in corporate governance and investment analysis. Established managerial accounting models, focused primarily on financial indicators, are no longer sufficient for effective management decision-making. In the context of digitalization, the growing scale of non-financial risks, and the expanding range of stakeholders, the adequacy of accounting information is becoming increasingly important. This study aims to theoretically substantiate approaches to integrating ESG parameters and non-financial data into managerial accounting.

The research methods used include systems and institutional approaches, content analysis of scientific papers, a comparative analysis of classical and ESG-oriented accounting, and structural and logical modeling methods. The presented methods made it possible to substantiate the validity of proposals for the integration of ESG criteria into management accounting. Results. A closer look was made at the managerial accounting transformation, influenced by ESG factors. The main methodological and organizational barriers for implementing non-financial information were defined, including the issues of measurements, data reliability, and their report inclusion. The originality of this work is expressed in its presentation of management accounting, taking into account ESG factors, as a unified information environment. This environment unites management accounting, management analysis, and investment analysis. The practical value of the results is based on the potential application in developing accounting systems adapted to ESG criteria. Furthermore, the findings are applicable in the development of management KPIs and sustainability reporting for companies. The recommendations made are useful for revising the functions of financial services to ensure that decisions in the area of sustainable development and investment management are justified.

Environmental Management Accounting within the ESG Indicator System of Sustainable Business Development in Kazakhstan

2026-02-16T16:42:19+00:00

The paper’s objective is to examine the role of environmental management accounting within the ESG indicator system of sustainable business development in Kazakhstan and to assess how environmental accounting practices contribute to improving corporate sustainability performance. This study employs a mixed analytical approach combining critical literature synthesis, statistical analysis, and correlation analysis based on secondary data from national environmental statistics, corporate sustainability disclosures, and ESG-related indicators. As a result of the research, several key relationships were identified, including a statistically significant correlation between environmental management expenditures and environmental performance indicators, as well as a positive association between the implementation of environmental management accounting practices and ESG environmental scores among large and medium-sized enterprises. The analysis demonstrates that organizations applying structured environmental management accounting systems tend to show lower emission intensity, higher resource efficiency, and improved transparency in non-financial reporting. The conclusion of the research is that environmental management accounting acts as a critical integrating mechanism within the ESG framework, linking environmental performance with strategic management and investment attractiveness. Moreover, the paper concludes that the effective integration of environmental management accounting into corporate governance systems is particularly relevant for Kazakhstan, where sustainable business development requires alignment between regulatory policy, corporate accountability, and ESG-driven economic transformation.

Accounting as a Basis for the Information Framework for Assessing the Investment Attractiveness of Enterprises

2026-02-25T02:47:22+00:00

The article explores the role of accounting as a foundation for the information system used to assess the investment attractiveness of enterprises. The purpose of the study is to substantiate approaches for forming a high-quality accounting and analytical framework that facilitates informed investment decisions. The research identifies key directions for improving the quality of accounting information, including its completeness, reliability, neutrality, usefulness, and timeliness. The scientific novelty lies in the development of a model of qualitative characteristics of accounting information and the proposal of weighting coefficients that reflect their importance to users. The methodology involves the method of scientific generalization, as well as the analysis of regulatory sources, statistical data, and expert assessments. The main findings confirm the necessity of integrating all types of accounting—financial, managerial, tax, and statistical—into a unified information system. The paper emphasizes the strategic importance of accounting information in conditions of an unstable external environment. The practical significance of the study lies in the applicability of its conclusions for improving managerial decision-making, developing business strategies, and evaluating the investment attractiveness of both existing and newly established enterprises.

Optimization of the Information Portal for the Development of Ecotourism in the Ulytau Nature Park

2026-02-17T05:50:25+00:00

This article is devoted to a study aimed at optimizing the information portal for the development of tourism in Ulytau, a region of Kazakhstan with significant potential for eco-tourism. The purpose of the study is to identify the key factors influencing the perception and evaluation of the portal by users, and to develop specific recommendations for its improvement in order to increase the effectiveness of the promotion of the region.

An integrated approach combining quantitative and qualitative methods was used as the methodological basis of the study. A survey of the portal's users was conducted, the data of which was subjected to cluster analysis to identify groups of users with similar needs and preferences. Correlation analysis was also applied to establish the relationships between the various parameters of the portal's assessment and the socio-demographic characteristics of users. The analysis was performed using the statistical software package SPSS.

The results of the study allowed us to identify several key user groups and identify the factors that have the greatest impact on their satisfaction and willingness to recommend the portal. Based on the data obtained, specific recommendations were developed for optimizing the content, functionality, design, and promotion of the portal.

The research contributes to the development of the theory and practice of ecotourism in regions with unique natural and cultural heritage and is of practical interest to authorities and organizations involved in the promotion of tourist destinations using information technology. The results obtained can be used to optimize information portals dedicated to the development of tourism in other regions.

Forest Bathing (Shinrin-yoku) and Sustainability: Attitudes of Domestic Tourists in Serbia on Health and Nature Protection

2026-02-22T07:05:22+00:00

Objective – to comprehensively assess the potential of forest bathing (Shinrin-yoku) as a health-oriented and nature-based tourism activity and to examine and explain the relationships between perceived health and psychological benefits, environmental awareness, and domestic tourists’ intention to support sustainable tourism. Methods – the study is based on a structured survey conducted among 1,385 domestic tourists in Serbia; data were processed using exploratory factor analysis, correlation analysis, and OLS regression models with robust standard errors. Results – the findings indicate that perceived health and psychological benefits of forest bathing have a statistically significant direct effect on the intention to support sustainable tourism; additionally, an indirect effect mediated by environmental awareness was identified; nature-based experiences were confirmed as an important determinant of environmentally responsible and sustainable tourist behavior; the results highlight the role of forest bathing as a tool for promoting sustainable tourism. Conclusions – forest bathing represents an effective mechanism for integrating health benefits with sustainable tourism behavior, enhances environmental awareness, and contributes to the long-term sustainable development of tourist destinations, as well as to the improvement of tourism planning and policy-making.