ECONOMIC Series of the Bulletin of the L N Gumilyov ENU

Risk Management Strategies in Kazakhstan's Fuel and Energy Complex

L. Popp — 2025-06-30

This article examines risk management issues in Kazakhstan’s fuel and energy complex (FEC). The study aims to identify the current level of risks in the sector and propose measures to mitigate them. The working hypothesis suggests that the use of scenario modeling and diversification tools can ensure effective management of both external and internal risks in the FEC. The research involved a review of modern works by Kazakhstani and international authors, along with the analysis of up-to-date data from 2024. The findings reveal that the key risk factors for the FEC include high dependence on oil and gas exports, global market price volatility, infrastructure and transit limitations, and instability in regulatory policy. Scenario analysis methods were applied to assess changes in production capacity and financial indicators under various conditions. The article reviews modern literature, creates risk maps of the Kazakhstan FEC based on new data for 2024, and analyzes factors affecting the level of risk through possible scenarios. Based on the analysis, the study justifies the need for sectoral diversification, development of renewable energy, implementation of long-term strategies, and improvement of corporate governance mechanisms. The recommendations provided in the article aim to enhance Kazakhstan’s energy security and ensure the sustainable development of the sector.

Digitalization of food logistics in Kazakhstan in new economic conditions

А. Smagulov — 2025-06-30

This article examines the relevance and importance of the process of digitalization of food logistics in Kazakhstan in the context of new economic conditions. The authors analyze the role of introducing digital technologies into logistics chains in ensuring food security, and analyze the possibilities of effective management, monitoring and resource optimization. The study describes the main directions of digitalization and current obstacles to their implementation, based on domestic and international experience. In addition, the importance of modernizing logistics infrastructure and introducing data-based management solutions is highlighted. The results of the article are summarized with recommendations aimed at increasing the competitiveness of the agro-industrial complex in Kazakhstan.

The purpose of the research work: to analyze the processes of digitalization of food logistics in Kazakhstan in the context of new economic realities, to study the possibilities of using modern IT solutions that contribute to increasing the efficiency of logistics chains, as well as to develop recommendations aimed at optimizing the food supply system.

The purpose of the study is to study and substantiate the dimensions and indicators of food security in the country, one of the multidimensional problems of international and national nature that affects many social groups of the population.

Modern problems of logistics risk management in supply chains in the digital economy

A. Bekmetova — 2025-06-30

This study examines by emphasizing digital economy dynamics, logistic risk management within supply chains. The introduction highlights the aims and objectives of the research as well as development strategies and viewpoints, so putting the study in a larger framework. With an eye toward the modern difficulties of logistic risk management in supply chains, the study places the problem within the dynamic terrain of the digital economy. To clarify the complex nature of logistic risks inside digitally integrated supply chains, the study uses a range of techniques including statistical analysis, case studies, and survey. The study’s key findings center around the complexities and potential vulnerabilities that arise within digitally operated supply chains, shedding light on the dynamic nature of logistic risks in this context. By synthesizing the research, key interpretations and insights will be presented, underscoring the critical importance of adaptive and resilient strategies for effectively managing logistic risks in modern digital supply chains. This abstract aims to encapsulate the essence of the paper, offering a concise overview of the scope and significance of the research on logistic risk management in the digital economy.

Analysis of the digital representation of the activities of the special economic zones of the RK

D. Kangalakova — 2025-06-30

Special economic zones are one of the important elements of the national innovation system. This article examines the activities of special economic zones and analyzes their representation in the digital space. The aim is to analyze the digital representation of special economic zones and develop proposals to improve the efficiency of their activities. The research used methods of deduction, induction, analysis, synthesis and abstraction. During the study, the results showed that several FEZs are actively operating in the digital space, and information about their activities is available to all participants in the economy. FEZs have also been identified in which information about their activities is unavailable. Based on the results of the analysis, it was proposed to make proposals to improve their activities for the socio-economic development of the region. The practical value of this research can be useful to investors, consumers, businessmen and government authorities. The theoretical value of this research lies in the fact that it can complement the theoretical studies of the development of the national innovation system of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Analysis and assessment of sustainable competitiveness of regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan with weak economic potential

S. Kassymova — 2025-06-30

The article examines the analysis and assessment of sustainable competitiveness of a region with weak economic potential in the context of sustainable development of the Kyzylorda region of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The stability of any administrative-territorial unit is characterized by its competitive advantages or economic potential, which are realized in the process of its development. The economic potential of a region is determined by the state of the ecological system, the wealth of the mineral resource base, the degree of development of processing industries, and so on. Unfortunately, the assessment of the competitiveness of the territories of the Republic of Kazakhstan indicates that, having good potential advantages for increasing competitiveness, these regions are still in a "successful" range of development. There has long been a period when it is necessary to fully use the above resources to the fullest extent and effectively. A decrease in the competitiveness of a particular region of the country will directly have a negative impact on the socio - economic situation and well-being of the region's population. That is why the issues of ensuring and increasing the competitiveness of regions should be the primary tasks that need to be addressed in a timely and fast manner. Based on the assessment, taking into account the established methodological approaches to assessing the state of sustainable development of the regions, the weakest competitive advantages of the region are identified, which are directly interrelated with the sustainable state of the regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Ensuring the sustainable competitiveness of a region with weak economic potential is an important strategic task, occupies an important place and plays an important role in the national policy of any state. The analysis carried out in the scientific work revealed the most vulnerable places in the development of potential opportunities for ensuring economic growth and competitiveness of the territories of Kazakhstan.

Socio-Economic Aspects of Middle Class Identification: Criteria and Challenges

A. Appazov — 2025-06-30

This article provides an in-depth analysis of the formation of the middle class in Kazakhstan, the criteria used to define it, and its socio-economic significance. The study traces the historical evolution of the middle class concept, drawing on economic and sociological theories from antiquity to the present day. The authors argue that the middle class should not be defined solely by income level, but also by a combination of factors such as professional status, homeownership, savings, education, and cultural capital. The article examines the current situation in Kazakhstan, presenting statistical data on median wages, the minimum subsistence level, housing quality, savings rates, and educational attainment. It is noted that the middle class comprises only 10–15% of the population and remains unstable, highlighting the need for adjustments in economic policy. Drawing on international experience, the authors emphasize the importance of implementing systemic reforms to strengthen the middle class in Kazakhstan. These include ensuring labor market stability, improving financial literacy, expanding access to housing, and supporting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The article underscores that a strong middle class is essential for sustainable socio-economic development and national stability.

HR risk management in the hotel business in Kazakhstan: innovation and practice

A. Legostaeva — 2025-06-30

The hotel business in Kazakhstan is one of the fastest growing sectors that has a significant impact on the economy and society. Personnel risks are among the most complex and have a wide classification. The management of these risks includes the identification, assessment, and control of all internal and external factors that may negatively affect the company's activities. To analyze human resource management in the hotel sector, taking into account personnel risks, 131 employees of various management levels were interviewed. The conclusions obtained by the authors demonstrate that strategic human resource management in the reviewed hotel organizations is at a low level of development. To improve the situation, the authors consider the possibility of implementing a human resource management system, including a mechanism for managing personnel risks.

Based on the findings, the authors hypothesized that it is possible to solve these problems by creating and implementing a typical personnel risk profile. Despite the recommendatory nature of this proposal, they are undoubtedly able to have an impact, reduce the number of personnel risks, and stop the negative impact of their onset on the dynamics of the development of organizations in this area.

Economic aspects of food waste management in Kazakhstan: problems, trends, and prospects

A. Baidalinova — 2025-06-30

The article considers the problem of food waste in Kazakhstan, which is becoming increasingly important in the context of sustainable development and food security. Food waste represents a significant share in the total volume of waste, which negatively affects the ecology and economy of the country. The article considers the problems and prospects of separate waste collection and recycling. It emphasises the need to create a closed-loop system of food waste management, as well as the need to integrate innovative technologies and long-term measures aimed at achieving national environmental goals. The authors emphasise the importance of an integrated approach to addressing these issues in order to achieve sustainable development and improve the efficiency of the waste management system in the country.

The aim of the study is to analyse the current state and identify the problems of separate waste collection and recycling in Kazakhstan, as well as to propose effective solutions for the creation of a closed-loop waste management system. The research methods are analysis of statistical data, review of existing programmes and initiatives, analysis of successful foreign practices. The results show that most of the waste is generated at the stages of production and distribution, which requires an integrated approach to solving the problem, including measures to raise public awareness and introduction of effective waste treatment technologies.

Assessment of socio-economic risks associated with rising debt levels among the population

А. Kossaumassova — 2025-06-30

This article explores the growing problem of household over-indebtedness in Kazakhstan and its impact on the country's socio-economic stability. The aim of the research is to assess the current structure and dynamics of household debt, identify critical vulnerabilities, and develop strategic recommendations to mitigate systemic financial and social risks. The study focuses on the excessive reliance of the population on short-term consumer loans, especially among low-income groups, and the underutilization of long-term asset-based instruments such as mortgages. The research methodology is based on a mixed approach that includes statistical analysis of official data from the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market (ARDFM), and the results of the 2023 National Financial Literacy Survey. Key findings show that a low level of financial awareness, impulsive consumer behavior, and widespread misrepresentation of income during loan applications contribute significantly to the rising debt burden. The study introduces a structured framework for assessing socio-economic risks associated with household borrowing. Its scientific contribution lies in the synthesis of macro- and micro-level debt indicators, while its practical value is reflected in policy proposals for strengthening financial literacy programs, regulating consumer credit, and supporting vulnerable groups. Overall, the research contributes to shaping a more financially inclusive and socially resilient economic environment in Kazakhstan.

The financial mechanism in the healthcare system of the republic of Kazakhstan

Z. Iskakova — 2025-06-30

The article examines the current financial mechanism of the healthcare system of the Republic of Kazakhstan, focusing on its structure, sources of revenue, and schemes for the redistribution of financial flows. International experience emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to the formation of a financial mechanism for healthcare, which involves a combination of state, insurance and private sources with a priority on protecting households from excessive financial costs. Key financing actors have been identified: government bodies, the Social Health Insurance Fund, the population, and the private sector. Special attention is given to the role of the state as a coordinator and regulator of the system, as well as to the SHIF as the operator of public procurement within the framework of the Mandatory Social Health Insurance (MSHI) and the Guaranteed Volume of Free Medical Care (GVFMC).
A comparative analysis with international practices (OECD countries) is conducted, and the efficiency of the current financing model is assessed. The analysis proposes an original scheme of interactions between the financial mechanism's stakeholders and a classification of expenditure categories based on funding sources. It is established that the persistently high share of out-of-pocket expenditures by the population exceeds the WHO’s recommended thresholds, indicating the need for systemic changes. Reform directions are substantiated: diversification of funding sources, strengthening the role of MSHI, and enhancing transparency in the use of funds.

Application of artificial intelligence in forecasting corporate financial risks

А. Shakbutova — 2025-06-30

In the context of increasing economic uncertainty, climate variability, and rising credit exposure in Kazakhstan’s key industries, the ability to accurately forecast corporate financial risks has become critically important. This article examines the practical application of artificial intelligence (AI) in improving financial risk prediction, with a focus on Kazakhstan’s agricultural and leasing sectors. The study evaluates how user-friendly AI tools—such as rule-based expert systems, satellite imagery analytics, automated reporting modules, and AI-powered inventory platforms—can support early warning systems and enhance operational decision-making. Scientific relevance is ensured through the analysis of real-life cases, including Farmonaut’s crop monitoring system and KazAgroFinance’s AI-driven asset verification tool. These technologies enable more accurate forecasts of yields and drought risks, improve resource planning, reduce manual errors, and strengthen loan oversight. The methodology is based on comparative analysis of financial and operational indicators over a 10-year period (2015–2024), with a focus on pre- and post-AI implementation outcomes. Unlike complex predictive models, the study emphasizes transparent, easily interpretable AI applications that are already in use in Kazakhstan. The findings confirm that such tools enhance efficiency, mitigate financial risks, and increase resilience in corporate management. This research offers practical recommendations for scaling up AI-based forecasting tools in Kazakhstan’s business ecosystem.

Improving enterprise efficiency through digitalization and tax administration control

S. Joldybayeva — 2025-06-30

. In Kazakhstan, tax amendments and additions are implemented through the national tax code, with oversight measures, including digitalization, continuously being strengthened. These policy updates take effect every January, and compliance is monitored by regulatory authorities.

The purpose of this article is to explore how businesses can improve their financial health by properly utilizing the tax benefits provided by the tax code of Kazakhstan. Additionally, it examines how tax reforms impact the application of these benefits, using monitoring and regulatory mechanisms as tools for economic development. To promote transparency, the government encourages businesses to operate openly by introducing tax reforms and offering incentives. These measures are legally enforced and overseen through various tax regimes, which businesses must carefully select as they expand and diversify. Ultimately, such policies contribute to economic growth and enhance financial stability for enterprises.

The relevance of this article lies in examining the digitalization of the tax system and assessing the impact of digital technologies on tax collection as a key indicator of tax administration efficiency. The scientific novelty of the study is rooted in its exploration of the role of digital transformation in modernizing the tax system.

Sustainable development of Kazakhstan's banking sector in the context of digital transformation

А. Idirissova — 2025-06-30

The purpose of the study is to identify factors contributing to the further development of financial markets in the context of the worsening processes of financial globalization and integration, which have a contradictory impact on economic development, accompanied by an increase in internal contradictions of the financial system, an increase in systemic risks and the emergence of crisis phenomena. In this context, it is necessary to develop a sustainable financial market as a basis and mechanism for ensuring the stability of the financial system.

The article substantiates the importance and identifies the factors of innovative economic development, among which special importance is attached to digital technologies and their impact on the development of a stable financial system; discusses the problems of regulating international financial markets, the role and importance of the banking system in the financial market.

The digital transformation of the financial market entails not only opportunities, but also risks such as cybersecurity and financial bubbles. For sustainable development, it is necessary to regulate new technologies, ensure data protection and cooperate internationally. In the digital economy, financial institutions face challenges and opportunities to improve the quality of services. It is important to take effective measures to ensure the stability and security of the financial market.

Analysis of the innovative potential of investment activities of companies in Kazakhstan

M. Amangeldinova — 2025-06-30

This article analyzes the innovative potential of investment activities of сompanies of Kazakhstan, which are brought to the forefront in terms of the country's desire to modernize the economy and improve the investment climate, established by the president of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at the 34th plenary session of the Council of foreign investors. The purpose of the study is to identify and evaluate factors that contribute and hinder the implementation of innovative potential within the framework of investment activities, as well as develop proposals for its activation. To achieve the set goals, a set of methods was used, which included the analysis of statistical data, qualitative and quantitative analysis, comparative analysis and document analysis. The results of the study show that despite the current challenges, such as insufficient development of innovative infrastructure and limited funding, Kazakhstan has significant opportunities to accelerate innovative development by optimizing investment policy and strengthening integration with international scientific and technological networks. The article presents specific proposals for improving institutional support for investment activities in the direction of innovations that contribute to increasing the competitiveness of the national economy at the global level.

Price Transmission Dynamics between Natural Gas and Urea: A Global Analysis Using Cointegration and VECM Approach

S. Kontsevaya — 2025-06-30

This study examines the price transmission dynamics between natural gas and urea on a global scale over the period from 2015 to 2024, using monthly data. Recognizing urea’s critical role in agriculture and its susceptibility to input cost fluctuations, we employ Johansen cointegration tests and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyze their relationship. Our findings reveal a long-run cointegration between natural gas and urea prices, characterized by an asymmetric transmission. Specifically, natural gas prices significantly influence urea prices, but not vice versa. Moreover, the adjustment to a shock in natural gas prices on urea prices occurs with an estimated lag of approximately five months. These results underscore the vulnerability of agricultural input markets to energy price volatility, highlighting the importance of monitoring energy markets to anticipate movements in fertilizer costs.

Integration of environmental criteria into the performance audit of the state investment policy of Kazakhstan

А. Alimbek — 2025-06-30

In the context of the active transition of the Republic of Kazakhstan to a "green economy", there is an increasing need to improve the system of state audit aimed at assessing the effectiveness of the implementation of state investment policy, taking into account environmental priorities. The purpose of this study is to develop approaches to performance audit of public investments with an emphasis on their contribution to sustainable development. The work includes an analysis of the regulatory framework, procedural auditing standards, as well as criteria applicable to the assessment of "green" investments. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the proposal of an adapted system of criteria and performance indicators based on procedural standards and the experience of supreme audit institutions. The methodology is based on a systematic and comparative legal analysis, as well as a logical method. As a result, a methodological framework for auditing has been formed, taking into account the environmental aspects of public investment activities. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of applying the developed recommendations in the work of the Supreme Audit Chamber of the Republic of Kazakhstan and other state audit bodies. Based on the results of the study, recommendations are given on the regulatory consolidation of the requirements of the environmental aspects of performance audit, the development of the potential of environmental expertise of state auditors, and the improvement of interdepartmental coordination between state audit, planning, and environmental control bodies. These measures will contribute to the formation of a more objective and comprehensive assessment of public investment policy in the context of the development of the "green economy".

Directions for improving information support for strategic management accounting

A. Pardayev — 2025-06-30

The article develops a set of strategic potential indicators that allow a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of the strategic management system. It is substantiated, and a model form is proposed to create a strategic forecast balance sheet that assesses the potential of enterprises to achieve their strategic goals. Ways to perform appropriate analytical calculations using the strategic forecast balance, objective assessment of the results, and to determine the causes of deviations are shown.

The article proposes to consider the identification of effective ways to achieve the strategic goal through the assessment and analysis of strategic potential. For strategic purposes, it is recommended to establish a strategic development and reproduction link for the effective use of strategic potential.

It is recommended to use the methodology of fuzzy set theory for the integrated assessment of strategic competence, based on the views of economists and the study of the practices, as well as the characteristics of the industry. To establish a logical relationship, the values of strategic potential of the state enterprise "Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Combine" for 2024-2028 were calculated by applying the process of deflation in the change of numerical and non-financial data in different directions.

Effectiveness of the mechanism of state support of the sphere of culture: subsidizing the film industry.

М. Argynbekov — 2025-06-30

Today, the practice of state subsidization of cinematography is becoming more complex and controversial. Even though government agencies continue to provide financial support to national film production, considering it as a cultural asset worthy of protection, they face a fundamental dilemma. After the adoption of the sectoral law "On Cinematography" in 2019, the national cinema in Kazakhstan is supported by the State Center for the Support of National Cinema. The article analyzes the mechanism of subsidizing the film industry over the past 5 years. The purpose of this article is to test the hypothesis that government financing does not contribute to increasing the profitability or box office of films in Kazakhstan. To calculate the effectiveness of invested funds in the form of subsidies, the calculation of the return on investment ratio (ROI) was used — this is a financial indicator used to assess the effectiveness of investments. The analysis also uses a qualitative method, SWOT analysis, and various official and unofficial primary sources, including news reports from the media, government documents, and articles written by experts. The analysis revealed that the main threat is the lack of transparency of the subsidy system, the lack of economic and commercial indicators, which leads to low motivation of producers in promoting films. An analysis of regulatory legal acts in the field of cinematography shows that government policy is not focused on ensuring the profitability of film projects. The article provides certain recommendations for improving the effectiveness of state support for the cultural sector in the form of subsidies.

Problems of the development of ecological tourism in the territories of national natural parks (using the example of Tarbagatai National Natural Park)

S. Rustemova — 2025-06-30

The article is devoted to the analysis of the potential for the development of ecological tourism in the territory of the Tarbagatai State National Nature Park, one of the youngest protected areas in Kazakhstan. The purpose of the study is to identify factors that hinder the sustainable development of tourism, as well as to determine the directions for increasing its effectiveness based on national and international experience.

The work analyzes the territorial and institutional features of the park, the quantitative dynamics of tourist flows for 2021–2024, barriers, and challenges affecting the development of ecotourism. The effective development of ecotourism is determined by a combination of factors encompassing institutional, natural-resource, infrastructural, and sociocultural components. The methods of comparative analysis, SWOT diagnostics, and interpretation of normative and empirical data are used.

Based on the analysis, the unevenness of the tourist load, insufficient infrastructure, and weak involvement of local communities were revealed. The work presents an adapted matrix of strategic opportunities, confirmed by examples of international practices (Canada, Germany, South Korea, China). The results of the study have scientific and applied significance for the formation of policy in the field of sustainable tourism in protected areas. The proposed conclusions can be used in the activities of management bodies, as well as in the development of programs for the development of tourism infrastructure and environmental monitoring.

Development of ecological hotels in the Republic of Kazakhstan

R. Agybetova — 2025-06-30

One of the main issues is the development of ecological hotels in the Republic of Kazakhstan. This article examines the essence and economic functions of green hotels, provides information, analyzes the history of development, and presents statistical data. The foreign experience in this area was reviewed, comparison was carried out with the eco-hotels in the country. In addition, an analysis of the volume of work and services of eco-hotels in Kazakhstan was carried out, and their main disadvantages were identified. Due to the late development of entrepreneurship eco-tourism, eco-hotels in Kazakhstan, the possibilities of its development are presented. Due to the lack of standard norms and eco-signs in the legislation, a project was proposed to create a standard for eco-hotels.

Taking into account the lack of development of legislative norms and the eco-labeling system, as well as relying on foreign experience, a draft standard has been developed for unique and specialized eco-hotels reflecting the specific features of our country.

The potential and prospects for the development of this industry in our country are assessed as high. All these proposals are aimed at developing a modern tourism economy, attracting foreign tourists, as well as ensuring the provision of environmentally friendly, organic and cost-effective products and services. Investments in eco-tourism contribute to the improvement of public health, the development of environmental education, and also have a positive impact on the regional and national economy. In this regard, the issues of development of this sphere, state support and attracting investments are considered as key conditions for ensuring the sustainable development of the tourism and hotel industry in the country.

Promotion of tourism brand of small towns of Turkestan region through historical and cultural heritage

N. Nurmaganbetkyzy — 2025-06-30

This article considers theoretical, methodological and applied aspects of formation and promotion of tourist brand of small towns of Turkestan region on the basis of cultural and historical heritage of the region. The relevance of the research topic is inextricably linked to the need for sustainable development of regional tourism, the importance of increasing investment attractiveness and forming a unique image of the region.

The aim of the study is to identify the potential of small towns as a tourist destination, to analyse the degree of perception of the tourist brand by tourists and the local community, and to develop a conceptual model based on the cultural identity of the region. The research used the methods of content analysis, sociological survey, SWOT-analysis. The empirical base constitutes the results of the research obtained in Sauran.

As a result of the study, the key advantages and disadvantages in the formation of tourism brand in small towns of the region are identified. The developed conceptual model plays an important role in strategic planning of tourism development in small towns.

Assessing readiness and breaking barriers to tourism digitalization: a case study of Kazakhstan

B. Shilibekova — 2025-06-30

This study aims to highlight the challenges and most pressing issues in the digitization of the tourism industry in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The primary goal of study is to examine the primary challenges encountered throughout the process of digital transformation in sector and determine strategies to effectively address them. The study utilizes comparative analysis and expert assessment to uncover the limited digitization of tourism firms in comparison to more advanced nations, the absence of high-quality digital infrastructure in rural areas, and insufficient degree of digital literacy among industry participants. The authors paid special attention to considering the existing state of tourism digital technologies, revealing barriers to their implementation and assessing impact on the tourism development. Several central aspects have been identified: infrastructure-type problems, lack of qualified specialists, problems of cybersecurity and protection of information various types, need to adapt the country’s legislative framework to new digitalization priorities. The authors’ analysis highlights the importance of developing a cohesive national digital strategy and securing financial resources to effectively use digital technology in tourism. The results of the study confirm the problem significance and the authors propose suggestions to develop infrastructure, increase level of digital literacy and stimulate investment.