Assessment of socio-economic risks associated with rising debt levels among the population

Abstract

This article explores the growing problem of household over-indebtedness in Kazakhstan and its impact on the country's socio-economic stability. The aim of the research is to assess the current structure and dynamics of household debt, identify critical vulnerabilities, and develop strategic recommendations to mitigate systemic financial and social risks. The study focuses on the excessive reliance of the population on short-term consumer loans, especially among low-income groups, and the underutilization of long-term asset-based instruments such as mortgages. The research methodology is based on a mixed approach that includes statistical analysis of official data from the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market (ARDFM), and the results of the 2023 National Financial Literacy Survey. Key findings show that a low level of financial awareness, impulsive consumer behavior, and widespread misrepresentation of income during loan applications contribute significantly to the rising debt burden. The study introduces a structured framework for assessing socio-economic risks associated with household borrowing. Its scientific contribution lies in the synthesis of macro- and micro-level debt indicators, while its practical value is reflected in policy proposals for strengthening financial literacy programs, regulating consumer credit, and supporting vulnerable groups. Overall, the research contributes to shaping a more financially inclusive and socially resilient economic environment in Kazakhstan.