Energy Transformation in Kazakhstan: Assessment of the Current State and Cluster Analysis of Renewable Energy Development

Abstract

. In the context of global energy transformation and escalating climate challenges, the transition to a low-carbon economy has become a strategic priority for Kazakhstan. The purpose of this article is to analyze the current state, trends, and regional characteristics of renewable energy sources (RES) development in Kazakhstan, identify spatial disparities, and determine optimal development pathways based on the climatic and resource potential of regions. Methods – using official statistics, analytical reports, and climatic indicators, a comprehensive comparative and cluster analysis was conducted to evaluate the dynamics of RES growth, identify regional clusters, and justify strategic directions for enhancing efficiency within the framework of the national carbon-neutrality strategy by 2060. The results demonstrate steady growth in installed capacity and power generation from RES, alongside significant regional imbalances. The cluster analysis identified three distinct groups of regions: southeastern areas suitable for solar and small hydropower development; southern regions favorable for industrial-scale solar generation; and northern and western territories optimal for wind and hybrid wind-solar systems. The findings provide a scientific basis for improving Kazakhstan’s energy transition policy and advancing the country’s sustainable development goals.