Elasticity of target indicators of the labor market of Kazakhstan on the way to integration with the higher education market

Abstract

Background: The alignment between higher education outputs and labor market demands remains a critical challenge in Kazakhstan. Discrepancies between graduate competencies and workforce requirements often hinder economic development and employment efficiency.

Objective: This study aims to quantitatively evaluate the interaction between higher education provision and labor market needs in Kazakhstan, identifying key factors that influence graduate availability and their integration into the workforce.

Methods: Using data from 2015–2025 and projections for 2026–2030, a multi-factor linear regression model was developed to analyze the impact of education costs, average nominal wages, and population dynamics on graduate supply. Elasticity coefficients and an integration index were calculated to measure the responsiveness of graduate supply to economic variables and the level of system alignment.

Results: Regression analysis indicates that a 1% increase in average wages reduces graduate supply by approximately 1.005%, while a 1% increase in population aged 15 and above increases supply by 0.468%. The integration index declined from 14.9 in 2016 to 3.1 in 2024, indicating gradual improvement in labor market alignment.

Conclusion: The findings highlight structural gaps between higher education outputs and labor market demands, emphasizing the need for policy interventions to enhance system integration. This study provides actionable insights for policymakers and educational planners to optimize graduate distribution and workforce planning.