Analysis of Sustainable Development Factors in the Tourism Industry Using Correlation and Regression Modeling

Abstract

The aim of this study is to identify and evaluate the factors influencing the sustainable development of the tourism industry in the Republic of Kazakhstan, based on an analysis of statistical indicators characterizing the state and dynamics of tourism infrastructure development.

Methods: econometric research methods, including correlation and regression analysis of statistical data. The empirical basis of this study is based on official data from the National Statistics Bureau of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2014–2024. The volume of services provided by accommodation facilities is used as the outcome variable, while the explanatory variables include indicators of tourist flows, accommodation capacity, investment activity in the accommodation and food service sectors, and the wage level of industry employees. Results: A correlation analysis of the relationships between key indicators of tourism industry development was conducted, and a reduced regression model was constructed to characterize the influence of key factors on the dynamics of the accommodation services market. The model was found to have high explanatory power (R² = 0.94), and the statistical significance of the model as a whole and of the coefficient for the tourist flow variable was established. Conclusions: In the short term, the main factor driving the growth in the volume of accommodation services is the dynamics of tourist flow, which reflects the level of tourist demand.

Investment activity shapes the conditions for the sector’s long-term development; however, the model developed does not statistically confirm its independent short-term effect. The results obtained can be used in the development of government policies for tourism infrastructure development and in enhancing the investment attractiveness of Kazakhstan’s tourism sector.