Impact of transactional activity of second-tier banks in Kazakhstan on the country's macroeconomic indicators and GDP

Abstract

In an era of rapid macroeconomic change and recurring financial instability, understanding the factors that influence national economic resilience is vital. This study examines the transactional activity of second-tier banks in Kazakhstan and their role in shaping core macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), poverty, and unemployment. The aim is to explore the connection between financial operations and socio-economic development under conditions of digital transformation in the banking sector. The study is significant for its contribution to economic resilience literature, and its practical relevance lies in informing policy and strategy for banking modernization. Using official data from 2013 to 2023, the research employs correlation and regression analysis to assess the relationship between banking transaction volumes and GDP trends. A strong positive correlation (r = 0.92) was identified, showing that transactional capacity contributes to GDP growth and enhanced financial inclusion. The research provides evidence that digital financial services improve access to banking, reduce poverty, and elevate living standards. The findings offer strategic insights for policymakers and lay the groundwork for further empirical studies in financial sector development.