Forecasting the economic growth of the country by analyzing the cycles of K.Zhuglyar and S.Kuznets (On the example of Kazakhstan)

Abstract

The article considers the medium-term conditions of economic growth in the world and the Republic of Kazakhstan based on the cycles of K. Juglar and S. Kuznets. The main drivers ensuring the current economic growth and development of the Republic of Kazakhstan have been identified. The analysis of the main macroeconomic indicators determining economic growth in the middle period is carried out. The modern conditions and phases of development of the types of the medium-term economic cycle are determined. Along with economic growth, the main macroeconomic indicators of the socio-economic development of the Republic of Kazakhstan are analyzed. A review of the literature on the study of the theoretical foundations and practical applications in the science of economic growth and economic cycles has been conducted and the practical significance and relevance of these concepts have been revealed at the present time. Based on the assessment results and facts, the degree of development of each factor is ranked. The main directions of current and economic development in the Republic of Kazakhstan are defined, the levels of influence of factors on them are differentiated. The author's approach proves the main factors ensuring the further economic growth of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Based on the results of the assessment of the main indicators, the peculiarities of the socio-economic development of the country, as well as the theoretical foundations of research, scientifically based recommendations have been developed to ensure stability in the medium-term economic growth of the country.