Regression model of the relationship between the Kazakh tenge exchange rate (KZT/USD) and the price of Brent crude oil

Abstract

Massive use and export of natural resources, in particular energy resources, can cause a complex of unfavorable economic phenomena, one of which is the “dutch disease”. Objective – to test the hypothesis that Kazakhstan failed to fully avoid the influence of the “dutch disease” currency channel: fluctuations in Brent oil prices cause fluctuations in the exchange rate of the national currency against the US dollar (KZT/USD) and increase uncertainty, which has an even greater negative impact on foreign trade and the level of foreign investment. Methods – correlation and regression analysis was applied in Statistica software based on 3372 observations in the period from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2024. Results - an empirical study of the relationship between the time series of the daily exchange rate KZT/USD and daily prices for Brent oil was carried out, regression models were built by year, of which five models indicate the presence of a cause-and-effect relationship between the variables under consideration. Conclusions - the author states the effect of the “dutch disease” currency channel in the Kazakh economy with different intensity in certain periods of the time period under study.