Determinants of Income Inequality in Kazakhstan: Econometric Modeling of the Effects of Educational Coverage, Entrepreneurship, and Digital Transformation

Abstract

Income inequality remains one of the key socio-economic challenges in Kazakhstan. The aim of this study is to assess, using econometric methods, the relationship between entrepreneurial activity, higher education enrollment, real wages, digital infrastructure, and income inequality. Methods –  the analysis is based on official statistical data for 2004–2025. The Gini coefficient is used as the dependent variable, while the independent variables include the number of active SMEs per 1,000 population, higher education enrollment, real average monthly wages expressed in constant 2025 prices, and the share of internet users. Linear, semi-logarithmic, and log-log models are estimated, while the stationarity of the time series and the diagnostic properties of the models are also examined. The results show that higher education enrollment has a positive and statistically significant relationship with the Gini coefficient in all model specifications. Real wages demonstrate a negative relationship in the linear and semi-logarithmic models, whereas the share of internet users shows a positive and statistically significant relationship in these specifications. Conclusion –  a statistically significant relationship for entrepreneurial activity is observed in the log-log model. Overall, the findings indicate that the relationship between the examined indicators and income inequality varies depending on the model specification.