Regional Prioritization of Digital Irrigation Management in Southern Kazakhstan: A Multi-Level Decision-Support Framework

Abstract

The purpose: Irrigated agriculture in Southern Kazakhstan faces water scarcity, climatic stress, and uneven adoption of water-saving irrigation technologies, creating a need for transparent regional prioritization of digital irrigation management. Methods: This study develops a multi-level, non-causal decision-support framework for Turkestan, Kyzylorda, and Zhambyl. The framework combines three analytically separate evidence blocks: a descriptive field-level water-balance comparison, contextual treatment-level economic evidence, and regional indicators of technology adoption, relative climate stress, land suitability, and observable implementation readiness. Results: The first two blocks provide contextual evidence and do not measure digitalization or enter the composite index. Only regional indicators are integrated through the Digital Irrigation Management Priority Index (DIMPI). In the source-reported grain-maize trial, seasonal total water consumption was 3,282 m³/ha under drip irrigation versus 3,996 m³/ha under discrete irrigation, a descriptive difference of 17.87%. Conclusions: Under all prespecified DIMPI weighting scenarios, Turkestan ranked first, while Kyzylorda and Zhambyl exhibited contrasting need–readiness profiles. The results support the use of DIMPI as a preliminary screening tool for identifying where more detailed digital-irrigation feasibility assessment may be warranted, rather than as an estimate of digitalization effects or project-level investment returns.