Financial Support for Agriculture in the Republic of Kazakhstan: From Subsidies to Digitalization and Green Technologies

Abstract

Objective − to trace the evolution of state support for agriculture in Kazakhstan in 2020–2025 in terms of the transition from the predominance of direct subsidies toward the expansion of digital and "green" development instruments, and to assess the implications of this transformation for the sustainability and efficiency of the sector, including compliance with Kazakhstan's obligations under the WTO and the EAEU. Methods − economic-statistical analysis of the dynamics of gross output, profitability of agricultural enterprises and the structure of fixed-capital investment in the sector; comparative analysis of the structure of state financial support instruments; structural classification; calculation of growth rates, compound annual growth rate (CAGR), and an original indicator relating investment to the increment in gross output. Results −The sector's share in the country's total fixed-capital investment fell from 5.4% in 2023 to 4.7% in 2024. A shift in the structure of state financing of the agro-industrial complex was identified toward preferential lending for seasonal work (about 53% of funds allocated in 2024), machinery leasing (28%) and investment projects (18%), together with the expansion of electronic subsidy systems and elements of green finance. Conclusions − the growth in gross output has been accompanied by declining producer profitability and a shrinking share of the sector in the country's investment portfolio, indicating the exhaustion of extensive growth reserves and increasing the importance of a qualitative transformation of support.